July 1st marked a significant moment in the early landscape of the 2026 Academy Awards race, as the team at Next Best Picture (NBP) unveiled their inaugural predictions for the season. While historically, early predictions made in July often prove to be significantly off the mark—a fact underscored by NBP’s sole correct major category prediction in July of the previous year being “One Battle After Another” for Best Adapted Screenplay—these initial forecasts offer a valuable snapshot of the prevailing narratives and potential contenders. The current preseason outlook, informed by past Oscar cycles and anticipated storytelling arcs, provides key insights into the films and performances poised to capture industry attention.
"The Odyssey" Faces an Accelerated Test of Its Best Picture Prospects
Unlike the previous preseason, where the top Best Picture contender remained a subject of considerable debate until much later in the year, the frontrunner for the 2026 Oscars faces an immediate and rigorous evaluation. Last year, at this same juncture, the film most widely predicted by NBP to dominate major categories, including Best Picture, was "After the Hunt." This prediction proved premature, with its viability diminishing significantly by the Venice Film Festival. In contrast, the current leading Best Picture candidate, "The Odyssey," will undergo scrutiny far sooner.
The early consensus among NBP’s prognosticators places "The Odyssey" at the forefront of their Best Picture predictions. While films such as "La Bola Negra" and "Wild Horse Nine" are not far behind in initial rankings, the rapid trajectory of "The Odyssey’s" public reception is undeniable. Within days, the critical and audience response from its July 6th London premiere will begin to shape perceptions, followed by broader industry commentary upon its wide release on July 17th. This accelerated timeline means that the initial designation of "The Odyssey" as the Best Picture frontrunner will either be validated by swift, overwhelmingly positive reactions or quickly be revealed as another early preseason miscalculation.
Even with a cautious approach, the prevalent sentiment is that "The Odyssey" is unlikely to experience the dramatic and swift decline seen with "After the Hunt." This offers a degree of comfort to pundits making early calls. The critical question now is whether "The Odyssey" will solidify its position as an insurmountable favorite, akin to "Oppenheimer" by the end of the summer, or if its momentum will gradually wane by August 1st, yielding ground to other contenders.
"Wild Horse Nine" Poised for Historic Nomination Haul
While "The Odyssey" leads the pack in early Best Picture voting, the film anticipated to achieve the most significant nomination count, particularly in the above-the-line categories, is "Wild Horse Nine." Should the current predictions for this film materialize, it could represent a nomination package rarely seen in recent decades.
Industry analysts are projecting a Best Picture nomination, a Best Director nod, and a win for Martin McDonagh in Best Original Screenplay. Furthermore, the film is expected to garner an extraordinary five acting nominations, potentially recognizing every principal actor. This level of acting recognition would surpass that of McDonagh’s previous critically acclaimed works. "The Banshees of Inisherin" and last year’s "Sentimental Value" both peaked at four acting nominations, while "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" secured three. Even the dominant "Everything Everywhere All at Once" ultimately landed seven major category nominations.
The prospect of five acting nominations for "Wild Horse Nine" is particularly noteworthy, as it has been 50 years since "Network" was the last film to achieve this feat. The potential for such a widespread recognition underscores the film’s perceived depth and breadth of talent. However, the challenge lies in realizing these predictions. Potential obstacles include whether actors like Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey will have sufficient screen time to make a significant impact, if Sam Rockwell can find a slot amidst other potential McDonagh projects, if newcomer Mariana di Girolamo emerges as a breakout star, or if John Malkovich can truly contend with Tom Cruise in the "overdue" Best Actor narrative. If these predictions are met, it would represent a historic and prescient achievement for the film and its ensemble.
Best Actor Race Expected to Be Highly Competitive
Tom Cruise is the overwhelming early favorite to secure the Best Actor Oscar for his role in "Digger," according to the initial preseason charts. However, Cruise is not the only performer widely anticipated to receive a nomination, suggesting that the Best Actor category could become exceptionally tight if these early projections hold true.
Beyond Cruise, actors such as John Malkovich, Sebastian Stan for "Fjord," and Ryan Gosling for "Project Hail Mary" are considered strong contenders for nominations, nearly on par with Cruise’s perceived likelihood. If this strong showing materializes, it would leave only one remaining spot for other actors to contend for. In such a scenario, if "The Odyssey" proves to be a major awards player, Matt Damon could emerge as a significant favorite for that final nomination slot.
Other notable actors vying for consideration include John Turturro for "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York," Pedro Pascal for "Behemoth!," and Robert Pattinson for "Primetime." The trajectory of the Best Actor race offers a stark contrast to the previous year. In July of the prior year, George Clooney and Jeremy Allen White were considered strong contenders, Michael B. Jordan was seen as a potential nominee but not a winner, and Ethan Hawke was not widely on the radar, only to later secure a nomination. With several established frontrunners potentially dominating the Best Actor race heading into the fall, the season will be closely watched to see if any of these early favorites falter by winter, potentially opening the door for new contenders.
Best Actress Category Projected to Revert to Form with Increased Competition
Last year’s Best Actress race was considered an anomaly, notably lacking the intense competition and dramatic shifts that have characterized the category throughout the 2020s. Jessie Buckley was perceived as having a strong hold on the award by the conclusion of the fall festival circuit. However, current predictions suggest that history is unlikely to repeat itself, with a more dynamic and unpredictable race anticipated for 2026.
In terms of early first-place votes, Michelle Williams for "A Place in Hell" and Renate Reinsve for "Fjord" are nearly tied. Julianne Moore for "The Debut" and Inde Navarrette for "Obsession" are also seen as significant contenders. After a season where Best Actress was remarkably stable, there is a prevailing expectation that the category’s characteristic unpredictability will return. The question remains whether a dominant frontrunner like Moore, or another unexpected candidate, will emerge and solidify their position by October, or if the race will continue to be fluid.
Given that Julia Roberts and Cynthia Erivo were considered leading contenders last July, and Angelina Jolie was the presumed frontrunner in July 2024, it is highly probable that some of the current early favorites will face challenges and potentially drop from contention. As new contenders rise, the dynamic of the race will shift, raising the question of whether any of these emerging favorites will be able to maintain their momentum through to the awards ceremony.
Best Supporting Actor: A Two-Horse Race Emerges Early
With the exception of a single vote for Jesse Plemons in "Digger," the early Best Supporting Actor predictions are dominated by two prominent figures: Paul Giamatti for "The Debut," who garnered 11 first-place votes, and John Goodman for "Digger," who received all remaining top votes. This suggests an early two-man race for the award.
Both Giamatti, seeking his first Oscar win after two previous nominations, and Goodman, aiming for his first nomination, possess compelling "overdue" narratives. These narratives often resonate strongly with Academy voters. However, the unpredictability of the awards season was highlighted last year when Adam Sandler, widely expected to secure his first nomination for "Jay Kelly," ultimately did not. Similarly, Samuel L. Jackson, a preseason favorite for a career-tribute Oscar for "The Piano Lesson," had a significantly smaller role than anticipated.
Last year’s Best Supporting Actor race saw Sean Penn claim his third Oscar, surpassing strong contenders like Stellan Skarsgard, Delroy Lindo, and Benicio del Toro. This outcome suggests a potential voter inclination towards rewarding new talent or individuals who have long been admired. The current landscape, with Giamatti and Goodman positioned as the frontrunners, raises the question of whether this perceived duel will sustain throughout the season. If either of these leading contenders falters, the door could open for other expected nominees, such as Sam Rockwell or Steve Buscemi from "Wild Horse Nine," or an entirely unexpected contender to emerge.
Best Supporting Actress: Predicted Chaos to Continue
The Best Supporting Actress category is shaping up to be one of the tightest in terms of early predictions, mirroring the Best Actress race. Currently, Mariana di Girolamo and Sandra Hüller for "Digger" are tied for the most first-place votes. However, the potential for significant shifts remains high. Complicating factors include Hüller and Penélope Cruz potentially having two performances in contention, di Girolamo possibly splitting votes within her own film with co-star Parker Posey, and the perennial fluidity of category placements as the season progresses.
It is crucial to note the precedent set by last year’s predictions. In July 2025, the Best Supporting Actress race was largely unpredicted. Only Elle Fanning was correctly identified as a potential nominee. Other predicted nominees included Ariana Grande, Ayo Edebiri, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Laura Dern. Surprise contenders like Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor were barely on the radar, and the eventual winner, Amy Madigan, was not even considered a possibility until a month later.
Given this historical lack of foresight, the current season faces uncertainty. Will the predictions for Best Supporting Actress prove more accurate this year, or will a series of unexpected frontrunners emerge, once again overturning initial expectations?
Screenplay Categories: Projected Blowouts Again?
The screenplay categories in the previous awards season were marked by a distinct lack of competition. Unlike years where one category might be a clear sweep and the other a nail-biter, both Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay saw decisive victories for "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another," respectively. This historic lack of suspense has led some to anticipate a more closely contested screenplay race in 2026.
However, the current NBP predictions suggest a return to dominant performances. "Wild Horse Nine" is heavily favored to win Best Original Screenplay, while "La Bola Negra" is projected for a similarly strong showing in Best Adapted Screenplay. The earlier wins for "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" in screenplay categories were bolstered by their status as Best Picture frontrunners. If "Wild Horse Nine" and "La Bola Negra" do not occupy the top two spots in the Best Picture race, it could introduce more variability into the screenplay competitions.
The potential for "La Bola Negra" to dominate Best Adapted Screenplay would continue a recent trend, following unchallenged wins for "Conclave" and "One Battle After Another" in consecutive years. While few obstacles are currently seen for "La Bola Negra," the eventual scale of films like "The Odyssey," "Dune: Part Three," and "Project Hail Mary," alongside critical support for smaller contenders like "The Invite" and "All of a Sudden," could influence this prediction.
In Best Original Screenplay, "Wild Horse Nine" holds a significant lead in early predictions, with "Digger" being the only other film to receive any first-place votes. This suggests a potential blowout in this category. However, if "Wild Horse Nine" fails to meet expectations and "Digger" doesn’t emerge as a serious contender, other films could gain traction. Potential challengers include "Fjord," which could follow the path of recent Cannes winners like "Parasite," "Anatomy of a Fall," and "Anora" to an Oscar win. Jesse Eisenberg’s "The Debut" is also a possibility, as are breakout contenders like Curry Barker for "Obsession" or Jordan Firstman for "Club Kids."
The NBP pundits’ track record from the previous year underscores the inherent uncertainty of early predictions. They did not foresee the twin dominance of "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" in the screenplay categories, placed too much faith in "After the Hunt," "Jay Kelly," and "Wicked: For Good," and only correctly predicted one above-the-line category, a common occurrence for preseason forecasts. This pattern of being blindsided between July and March is a consistent feature of the awards prediction landscape.
The upcoming weeks and months will be crucial in defining the narrative of the 2026 Oscar season. With "The Odyssey" facing immediate scrutiny, it is likely that the direction of the race will become clearer very soon. By next month, many of these initial predictions will either appear remarkably prescient or comically inaccurate, necessitating a rapid reassessment as the fall festival circuit begins. The journey from early predictions to Oscar night is invariably one of constant adaptation and recalibration.
The newly redesigned Oscar predictions page from Next Best Picture, powered by Award Expert, offers a comprehensive overview of these early forecasts. Industry observers and cinephiles are encouraged to explore these predictions and share their thoughts on the initial consensus picks via the comments section or Next Best Picture’s X account.
