As the theatrical world eagerly awaits the official announcement of the 2026 Tony Award nominations on Tuesday, May 5th, a palpable sense of contraction hangs over this Broadway season. In stark contrast to the previous year, which was lauded for its abundance of high-quality productions, the current landscape presents a more limited selection of eligible works. This scarcity, both in quantity and, according to many industry observers, in overall artistic merit, sets the stage for a competitive, albeit more focused, awards race. Despite the challenges, this season has still showcased remarkable talent, and this article delves into the likely contenders across the major categories, offering predictions and analysis ahead of the nominations announcement.
A Sharper Focus on Best Musical and Play
The hallmark of the 2025-26 Broadway season has been a notable decrease in the number of new musicals and plays premiering. This directly impacts the number of potential nominees in the top production categories, a trend not seen since the condensed 2021-22 season following the pandemic.
Best Musical: A Limited Field
This year’s Best Musical category is expected to feature only four nominees, a significant reduction from the typical five or more. This contraction is a direct result of only six new musicals making their Broadway debut this season. The predicted contenders are:
- The Lost Boys: A high-profile musical adaptation, this production has garnered significant attention and is expected to be a strong contender.
- Schmigadoon!: Capitalizing on its successful television adaptation, this musical has found a dedicated audience and critical appreciation.
- Titanique: This satirical musical, known for its clever take on the James Cameron film, has been a critical and commercial success.
- Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): This new musical has emerged as a dark horse, earning praise for its unique storytelling and performances.
Notably absent from contention are productions like "The Queen of Versailles," a critical and commercial disappointment, and the poorly reviewed stage adaptation of "Beaches." The limited pool of eligible musicals means that the Tony nominators have a more constrained set of choices, amplifying the significance of each eligible production. The budget of "The Lost Boys," often cited as substantial, underscores the investment and risk involved in bringing new musicals to Broadway, making its potential nomination a significant validation.
Best Play: Navigating Celebrity and Critical Reception
Similar to Best Musical, the Best Play category is also projected to have only four nominees due to a limited number of eligible new plays. This has led to a more predictable set of likely contenders, though the industry is watching closely how the Tony nominators balance star power with critical consensus.
The predicted nominees include:
- The Balusters: A critically acclaimed new drama that has resonated with audiences.
- Giant: This play has been noted for its ambitious scope and compelling narrative.
- Liberation: A thought-provoking new work that has generated considerable discussion.
- Little Bear Ridge Road: This production has been praised for its intimate storytelling and strong performances.
An alternate contender, Punch, highlights the tight margins in this category. While star-studded productions like the stage adaptation of "Dog Day Afternoon," featuring Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and "The Fear of 13," with Adrien Brody and Tessa Thompson, have performed well at the box office, critical reception has been more tepid. This presents a familiar dilemma for the Tonys, which have a history of overlooking critically lukewarm productions that rely heavily on celebrity wattage. The recent examples of Robert Downey Jr. in "McNeal" and George Clooney in "Good Night, and Good Luck" serve as cautionary tales, suggesting that strong reviews remain a crucial factor for Tony recognition, even for A-list talent.
Revivals: A Tale of Two Categories
The revival categories present a more varied landscape, with one category facing an abundance of strong contenders and another with a more defined set of possibilities.
Best Revival of a Musical: A Clear Frontrunner
The Best Revival of a Musical category appears to be straightforward this year, with a limited number of eligible productions expected to yield only three nominees.
The leading contenders are:
- Cats: The Jellicle Ball: This innovative reimagining of the classic musical has been a critical and popular success, lauded for its fresh approach.
- Ragtime: A revival of the acclaimed musical, this production has been praised for its powerful performances and timeless themes.
- The Rocky Horror Show: This enduring cult favorite has been revived to enthusiastic audiences, celebrating its unique theatrical spirit.
An alternate pick, Chess, faces an uphill battle for a nomination. Given the scarcity of slots in this category, the Tony nominating committee’s reception to its score and overall production will be critical. Unless there is a significant surge of support, "Chess" may be left off the nominee list.
Best Revival of a Play: A Deep and Competitive Field
In stark contrast, the Best Revival of a Play category is the most fiercely contested of the season, boasting a remarkably deep pool of 11 eligible productions. This abundance of riches means that even highly regarded shows might find themselves on the outside looking in.
The predicted nominees are:
- Becky Shaw: This revival has been lauded for its sharp writing and compelling performances.
- Bug: A visceral and intense production, "Bug" has garnered significant critical attention.
- Death of a Salesman: A timeless classic, this revival has been praised for its faithful yet insightful interpretation.
- Joe Turner’s Come and Gone: This significant work has been revived to critical acclaim, highlighting its enduring relevance.
- Oedipus: This classic Greek tragedy has been staged with powerful performances and a compelling vision.
The alternate pick, Fallen Angels, underscores the competitive nature of this category. The high-profile mountings of "Every Brilliant Thing," featuring Daniel Radcliffe in a challenging one-man show, "Marjorie Prime," with a stellar cast including Danny Burstein, Cynthia Nixon, and June Squibb, and "Proof," starring Ayo Edebiri and Don Cheadle, are all considered strong contenders. Their potential exclusion from the nominations would be a testament to the sheer quality and quantity of other revivals this season, making this a category to watch closely.
Individual Performances: A Mix of Established Stars and Rising Talents
The acting categories this year present a compelling mix of seasoned Broadway veterans and emerging performers, with several surprise eligibility changes adding to the intrigue.
Best Actress in a Musical: A Contested Race
The Best Actress in a Musical category is shaping up to be a dynamic competition, with a last-minute eligibility ruling significantly impacting the landscape.
The projected nominees are:
- Sara Chase – Schmigadoon!: Chase has been recognized for her comedic timing and vocal prowess.
- Stephanie Hsu – The Rocky Horror Show: Hsu, an Oscar-nominated talent, makes a return to Broadway, bringing considerable star power.
- Caissie Levy – Ragtime: Levy is a respected performer with a strong track record.
- Marla Mindelle – Titanique: Mindelle has been a standout in the hit musical, earning praise for her versatile performance.
- Christiani Pitts – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): Pitts has been a revelation in her role, delivering a powerful and memorable performance.
An alternate pick, Lea Michele – Chess, highlights a potential shake-up. The eligibility of Andrew Durand and Stephanie Hsu from "The Rocky Horror Show" in the lead categories, rather than featured roles, has shifted the dynamics. While this is a boon for Hsu, it means that the "Glee" star, Lea Michele, who has long been a fan favorite for a Tony nomination, might see her chances diminish, potentially at the expense of Sara Chase. Michele’s ability to "Rachel Berry" her way into a nomination remains a point of speculation.
Best Actor in a Musical: A Five-Nominee Contention
The Best Actor in a Musical category is expected to feature five nominees, thanks to an eleventh-hour eligibility reclassification.
The predicted nominees include:
- Nicholas Christopher – Chess: Christopher has been a strong presence in the musical.
- Luke Evans – The Rocky Horror Show: Evans brings significant star power and vocal talent to his role.
- Joshua Henry – Ragtime: Henry is a Tony-nominated actor known for his powerful performances.
- Sam Tutty – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): Tutty has been a standout in the new musical.
- Brandon Uranowitz – Ragtime: Uranowitz is a respected performer who has garnered critical acclaim.
The reclassification of Andrew Durand from "The Rocky Horror Show" to the lead category, increasing the eligible performances from eight to nine, guarantees five nominees. However, Durand’s chances of securing a nomination within this strong quintet are considered slim, despite the expanded field. The lineup is widely seen as exceptionally strong, making it difficult to argue against any of the predicted nominees.
Best Actress in a Play: A Strong Field of Veterans
The Best Actress in a Play category is characterized by a roster of highly respected actresses, making for a compelling, if predictable, nomination slate.
The projected nominees are:
- Rose Byrne – Fallen Angels: Byrne has been lauded for her captivating performance.
- Carrie Coon – Bug: Coon delivers a performance of intense power and complexity.
- Susannah Flood – Liberation: Flood has been a standout in her critically acclaimed role.
- Lesley Manville – Oedipus: Manville, an esteemed stage and screen actress, brings gravitas to her performance.
- Laurie Metcalf – Little Bear Ridge Road: Metcalf, a perennial favorite, is recognized for her nuanced portrayal.
An alternate nominee, Anika Noni Rose – The Balusters, signifies the depth of talent in this category. The presence of Kelli O’Hara, Byrne’s co-star in "Fallen Angels," is also a significant consideration. O’Hara’s remarkable Tony nomination streak, spanning over 20 years since her debut nomination for "The Light in the Piazza," is a testament to her consistent excellence. Should she miss a nomination this year, it would mark a significant departure from her career trajectory.
Best Actor in a Play: A Gathering of Tony Favorites
This category is poised to be a showcase of Tony Award stalwarts, featuring a lineup of actors with extensive accolades and critical acclaim.
The predicted nominees are:
- Nathan Lane – Death of a Salesman: Lane, a multiple Tony winner, brings his unparalleled talent to this iconic role.
- John Lithgow – Giant: Lithgow, another esteemed multiple Tony winner, is recognized for his commanding presence.
- Daniel Radcliffe – Every Brilliant Thing: Radcliffe, a recent Tony winner, continues to impress with his theatrical choices.
- Namir Smallwood – Bug: Smallwood delivers a powerful and intense performance, potentially as the newcomer in a sea of veterans.
- Mark Strong – Oedipus: Strong, a previous nominee, adds considerable weight to the category.
The alternate pick, Will Harrison – Punch, highlights the competitive nature of this category. Smallwood’s inclusion is particularly noteworthy, as his only previous Broadway credit is the 2021 production of "Pass Over." His potential nomination would signify a significant step in his burgeoning career, standing out against a field of established stars.
Featured Performances: Depth and Surprise
The featured acting categories, particularly for plays, are exceptionally strong this year, reflecting the depth of talent across numerous revivals.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: A Blend of Familiar and New Faces
This category features a mix of expected contenders and potential breakout performances.
The projected nominees are:
- Shoshana Bean – The Lost Boys: Bean is a consistent nominee in this category, known for her powerful vocals.
- Ana Gasteyer – Schmigadoon!: Gasteyer is widely considered overdue for a Tony nomination, and her performance here is a strong contender.
- McKenzie Kurtz – Schmigadoon!: Kurtz has been praised for her dynamic performance.
- Nichelle Lewis – Ragtime: Lewis steps into a role previously recognized by the Tonys, bringing a fresh interpretation.
- “Tempress” Chasity Moore – Cats: The Jellicle Ball: Moore also takes on a Tony-winning role, offering a unique take on Grizabella.
The alternate nominee, Melissa Barrera – Titanique, indicates the close competition. The potential for Lewis and Moore to earn nominations for reprising roles that have previously won Tonys adds an interesting layer to this category, especially considering their individual show-stopping numbers.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: A Tricky and Exciting Race
This category presents a complex field with multiple strong contenders.
The predicted nominees are:
- Ali Louis Bourzgui – The Lost Boys: Bourzgui, who was notably snubbed for his leading role in "The Who’s Tommy," is a strong contender here.
- André De Shields – Cats: The Jellicle Ball: De Shields, a Tony winner, follows up his "Hadestown" success with another potentially nominated performance.
- Jim Parsons – Titanique: Parsons delivers a standout comedic performance that could earn him a nod.
- Ben Levi Ross – Ragtime: Ross has been recognized for his compelling performance.
- Layton Williams – Titanique: Williams, an Olivier Award winner for this role, brings international acclaim to the Broadway stage.
The challenge in this category lies in the sheer number of strong performers from "Cats: The Jellicle Ball," including Sydney James Harcourt, Junior LaBeija, and Primo Thee Ballerino. However, the established talent of De Shields and the potential for Bourzgui and Parsons to break through make this a dynamic race. Williams’s previous Olivier win for the same role positions him as a formidable contender.
Best Featured Actress in a Play: A Crowded Field of Talent
With a significant number of eligible play revivals, the Featured Actress in a Play category is exceptionally deep and competitive.
The projected nominees are:
- Betsy Aidem – Liberation: Aidem has been recognized for her impactful performance.
- Aya Cash – Giant: Cash delivers a strong performance in a critically noted play.
- Laurie Metcalf – Death of a Salesman: Metcalf’s potential for a second nomination this season underscores her extraordinary talent.
- June Squibb – Marjorie Prime: Squibb, a veteran actress, brings significant experience to her role.
- Kara Young – Proof: Young is on a remarkable streak, with a nomination here potentially being her fifth consecutive nod and third win.
The alternate nominee, Cynthia Nixon – Marjorie Prime, highlights the intense competition. The possibility of Metcalf securing two acting nominations in the same year is a testament to her versatility and impact this season. Young’s continued success in this category would be a significant achievement, further solidifying her status as one of Broadway’s most celebrated performers.
Best Featured Actor in a Play: A Competitive Landscape
Mirroring the depth of the Featured Actress category, the Best Featured Actor in a Play race is also highly competitive, fueled by the robust revival season.
The predicted nominees are:
- Christopher Abbott – Death of a Salesman: Abbott has been lauded for his powerful portrayal.
- Richard Thomas – The Balusters: Thomas brings significant experience and talent to his role.
- Elliot Levey – Giant: Levey delivers a standout performance in a well-regarded production.
- Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Joe Turner’s Come and Gone: Santiago-Hudson is a respected figure in the theatre community.
- Charlie Thurston – Liberation: Thurston has been recognized for his compelling work.
The alternate nominee, Alden Ehrenreich – Becky Shaw, underscores the difficulty in predicting this category. The sheer number of strong contenders means that only one or two of these predictions might hold true. The consistent excellence of Laurie Metcalf and the continued success of Kara Young are among the few near certainties in the acting categories.
Direction and Design: Recognizing Vision and Craft
The categories for direction and design highlight the creative forces behind the season’s most impactful productions.
Best Direction of a Musical: A Mix of Established and Emerging Voices
This category showcases a range of directorial talent, from Tony veterans to promising newcomers.
The projected nominees are:
- Michael Arden – The Lost Boys: Arden, a Tony favorite, is expected to receive his fifth nomination.
- Lear DeBessonet – Ragtime: DeBessonet, following her recent debut nomination, is a strong contender.
- Christopher Gattelli – Schmigadoon!: Gattelli, also a recent nominee, continues to impress with his directorial work.
- Tim Jackson – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): Jackson is recognized for his innovative direction of a new musical.
- Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch – Cats: The Jellicle Ball: This directing duo has been lauded for their transformative vision of the musical.
The alternate nominee, Sam Pinkleton – The Rocky Horror Show, indicates the close competition. Arden’s consistent success and DeBessonet and Gattelli’s recent nominations suggest a strong showing for established talent. However, the fresh perspectives of Jackson and the collaborative vision of Levingston and Rauch for "Cats: The Jellicle Ball" could represent the future of musical theatre direction.
Best Direction of a Play: A Challenging and Unpredictable Race
The Best Direction of a Play category is notoriously difficult to predict, often reflecting a diverse range of directorial approaches.
The predicted nominees are:
- David Cromer – Bug: Cromer is a highly respected director known for his bold interpretations.
- Nicholas Hytner – Giant: Hytner brings his extensive experience to this production.
- Robert Icke – Oedipus: Icke has garnered international acclaim for his directorial work.
- Joe Mantello – Death of a Salesman: Mantello, a celebrated director, is a strong contender for his work on this classic play.
- Whitney White – Liberation: White has been praised for her dynamic and insightful direction.
The alternate nominee, Trip Cullman – Becky Shaw, underscores the unpredictability of this category. The selection often balances directors of new works with those helming significant revivals, making it a true test of critical consensus and artistic vision.
Best Original Score: A Shift in Eligibility
The Best Original Score category has seen a last-minute change in eligibility that significantly impacts the potential nominees.
The predicted nominees are:
- Beaches: Despite earlier reviews, its score is now considered eligible.
- The Lost Boys: The score for this musical is expected to be a strong contender.
- Schmigadoon!: The eligibility of its score was confirmed late in the season.
- Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): The score for this new musical has garnered positive attention.
- The Queen of Versailles: Despite the show’s challenges, its score is now eligible.
The alternate nominee, Death of a Salesman, highlights the potential for a non-musical play’s score to be recognized. The late eligibility of "Schmigadoon!" means that the five nomination slots are now filled with musicals. This forces the Tony nominators to make a deliberate choice to exclude potentially less-regarded scores like those from "Beaches" and "The Queen of Versailles," a decision that mirrors past instances where musicals were overlooked in favor of plays in this category.
Best Book of a Musical: A Direct Parallel to Best Musical
The Best Book of a Musical category is expected to closely mirror the nominations for Best Musical, reflecting the narrative strength of the selected shows.
The projected nominees are:
- The Lost Boys: The book for this musical is considered a strong contender.
- Schmigadoon!: The witty and engaging book of this musical is highly regarded.
- Titanique: The clever and satirical book has been a key to the show’s success.
- Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York): The book for this new musical has been praised for its originality.
The alternate nominee, Chess, presents a potential, albeit unlikely, disruption. The divisiveness of Danny Strong’s book for "Chess" makes its inclusion in this category a long shot, despite the musical’s other potential nominations.
Best Choreography: A Celebration of Movement
This category celebrates the artistry of movement on the Broadway stage, with a clear frontrunner emerging.
The predicted nominees are:
- Cats: The Jellicle Ball: The innovative ballroom choreography is a standout element of this production.
- Chess: The choreography for this musical is expected to be recognized.
- The Lost Boys: The aerial choreography has been a notable feature of the show.
- The Rocky Horror Show: The iconic choreography of this cult classic is a strong contender.
- Schmigadoon!: The energetic choreography has been praised by critics.
The alternate nominee, Ragtime, highlights the competitive nature of this category. The dazzling and integral ballroom choreography of Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons for "Cats: The Jellicle Ball" is widely seen as a locked-in nomination, potentially even a win. However, the vampiric flying choreography in "The Lost Boys" by Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Grant offers significant competition, showcasing diverse and impactful choreographic achievements this season.
As the 2026 Tony Awards nominations loom, the Broadway community braces for a season defined by its curated excellence rather than sheer volume. The predictions outlined above offer a glimpse into the potential honorees, highlighting both the enduring power of established talent and the exciting emergence of new voices shaping the future of American theatre. The official announcement on May 5th will reveal whether these predictions hold true and set the stage for the ultimate celebration of Broadway’s finest.
