The competition for the Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series this year is shaping up to be a dynamic and unpredictable contest, a stark contrast to the more constrained landscape of its comedy counterpart. With a significant number of previous nominees eligible for renewal and a fresh wave of compelling newcomers vying for attention, the 2024 Emmy race promises a thrilling showdown as networks and streaming platforms strategize to secure their place among television’s elite. Unlike the Outstanding Comedy Series category, which presents a more limited number of slots for breakout hits, the drama category offers a more open field, with potentially half of its coveted nomination spots up for grabs. This increased fluidity allows for greater disruption and presents a fertile ground for both established powerhouses and ambitious newcomers to stake their claim.
The Evolving Landscape of Drama Series Contenders
Last year’s Outstanding Drama Series nominations featured eight distinguished series. However, the eligibility pool for the upcoming awards has been significantly altered by the production schedules of these contenders. Only four of those eight nominees have released new seasons and are therefore eligible to return to the Emmy stage. This reduced pool of returning contenders immediately opens up opportunities for new and previously nominated shows to re-enter the race.
Adding to the complexity, no fewer than eight series that have previously received nominations in this category are making a strong bid for their return. Among these established contenders are Apple TV+’s critically acclaimed The Morning Show, HBO Max’s provocative Euphoria, Julian Fellowes’s historical epic The Gilded Age, and Netflix’s global phenomenon Stranger Things. These returning series bring with them established fan bases and critical recognition, making them formidable opponents for any new entrant. The sheer volume of these previously nominated shows underscores the highly competitive nature of the drama category, where even a past nomination does not guarantee a future spot.
The Emergence of Disruptive New Voices
A consistent hallmark of the Outstanding Drama Series race is the emergence of at least one or two groundbreaking new series each year that challenge the established order. These unexpected contenders often captivate audiences and critics alike, forcing voters to reconsider their existing preferences and potentially unseat presumed frontrunners. Last year, for instance, The Pitt made a significant impact, demonstrating the power of a fresh narrative to disrupt the established Emmy hierarchy. This year, the landscape is ripe for similar upsets, with a host of promising freshman dramas poised to make their mark.
Ineligibility of "Heated Rivalry" Highlights Emmy Rules
A notable point of discussion and disappointment among industry observers is the ineligibility of the acclaimed Canadian series, Heated Rivalry, for the Primetime Emmy Awards. The series, which garnered significant international attention, falls outside the eligibility criteria due to its production and funding model. For a series produced predominantly outside the United States to be considered for an Emmy, it must be a co-production between American and foreign partners initiated before production commences. Heated Rivalry was entirely funded by a Canadian company, with HBO Max only securing distribution rights after filming was completed. This technicality, while adhering to established Emmy rules, has left many disappointed that such a culturally resonant show will not be part of the awards conversation. The incident serves as a reminder of the intricate and sometimes exclusionary nature of award eligibility, prompting discussions about how such rules might evolve to accommodate a more globalized television landscape.
Examining the Top Freshman Contenders
While the possibility exists for all eight nomination slots to be claimed by returning shows, the strength and quality of this year’s freshman entries make this scenario highly unlikely. The following ten new drama series are generating significant buzz and are considered strong contenders for Emmy recognition, with an analysis of their potential awards strengths and weaknesses:
Alien: Earth (8 episodes) – Now Streaming on Hulu
Emmy winner Noah Hawley, known for his transformative work on Fargo, brings his distinctive vision to the Alien franchise with Alien: Earth. The series, set two years prior to the original 1979 film Alien, delves into the origins of the iconic Xenomorph through the character of Wendy, a synthetic being imbued with elements of human consciousness. Hawley’s approach honors the source material while infusing it with a fresh perspective. The series revisits familiar Alien themes of humanity’s hubris and corporate exploitation, all while meticulously recreating the visual aesthetic of the early films, lending significant gravitas to the narrative.
Emmy Outlook: Hawley’s previous nominations for Fargo in writing and directing categories suggest a strong possibility of individual nominations for his work on Alien: Earth. However, for its inaugural season, the series is more likely to find its footing in below-the-line technical categories such as makeup, sound design, and visual effects, where its scale and artistry can be prominently showcased.
Down Cemetery Road (8 episodes) – Now Streaming on Apple TV+
Developed by Morwenna Banks, the writer behind the Emmy-winning Slow Horses, Down Cemetery Road is a twisty thriller adapted from Mick Herron’s 2003 mystery novel. The series captures much of the sophisticated sensibility that made Slow Horses a critical darling. The plot centers on Sarah (Ruth Wilson), an art restorer who becomes engrossed in finding a young girl who disappeared after being taken to a hospital following an explosion at a neighbor’s house. Her investigation leads her to a murdered private detective, whose case is then taken up by his formidable widow, Zoë (Emma Thompson). Together, they uncover a conspiracy reaching the highest echelons of the British government. While some critics noted the series has yet to reach the heights of Slow Horses, it has received strong reviews, with particular acclaim for the performances of Thompson and Wilson.
Emmy Outlook: Securing an Emmy nomination for Down Cemetery Road may present a challenge, but it is far from insurmountable. Despite being overlooked by winter awards ceremonies, Apple has demonstrated increasing proficiency in orchestrating successful Emmy campaigns. The compelling performances, particularly Emma Thompson’s memorable turn as Zoë, could prove irresistible to voters.
It: Welcome to Derry (8 episodes) – Now Streaming on HBO Max
It: Welcome to Derry offers a deep dive into the chilling origins of Pennywise the Clown, serving as a prequel to Stephen King’s iconic novel and the subsequent film adaptations. Set in the snow-laden town of Derry, Maine, in 1962, the series begins with the disappearance of a young runaway, who is last seen with a mysterious couple. Their friends, determined to uncover the truth, soon find themselves confronting an otherworldly horror. The series skillfully interweaves themes of childhood innocence with incisive critiques of racism and militarism. Critical reception has been largely positive, with special commendation for the series’s production values and craft elements.
Emmy Outlook: Recognition for It: Welcome to Derry is most probable in below-the-line categories, specifically for direction, production design, and visual effects. Nominations for the series or individual acting performances are considered long shots for this season.
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (6 episodes) – Now Streaming on HBO Max
This third drama in the Game of Thrones universe offers a refreshing departure from the often dark and foreboding tone of its predecessors. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms follows the adventures of a knight named Dunk (Peter Claffey) and his squire, Egg (Dexter Sol Ansell). The series injects a palpable playfulness into the Game of Thrones lore, with kindness and empathy taking precedence over vengeance. Dunk, a former squire himself, takes up his fallen knight’s sword and pledges allegiance to the seven kingdoms, traveling the land to right wrongs and embody the ideals of a good man. Critics have lauded the series’s innovative tone, technical achievements, and particularly its writing, directing, and Claffey’s leading performance.
Emmy Outlook: With the formidable pedigree of Game of Thrones and House of the Dragon, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is expected to benefit from that legacy, positioning it favorably against many freshman rivals. However, given the intense competition from established returning dramas, the series is most likely to shine in the technical Emmy categories.
The Madison (6 episodes) – Now Streaming on Paramount+
The Madison represents the tenth scripted series from Oscar-nominated writer Taylor Sheridan since 2018, a testament to his prolific output. Similar to his flagship series Yellowstone, The Madison centers on a family, the Clyburns, who relocate from New York City to southwest Montana following a profound family tragedy, seeking solace and a fresh start. While critical reviews have been mixed, the series has garnered significant praise for star Michelle Pfeiffer, and its premiere episode achieved the largest audience of any Sheridan series to date.
Emmy Outlook: Sheridan’s shows have achieved substantial audience success but have historically been overlooked by the Emmys, with his previous nine scripted series earning only 11 nominations, all in below-the-line categories, and no wins. The Madison is thus expected to follow a similar pattern of potential nominations in technical categories. However, Michelle Pfeiffer, who has rarely appeared in a weekly series, is also generating buzz for her role in the Apple TV+ sitcom Margo’s Got Money Troubles. Given the industry’s tendency to recognize performers in a breakthrough year, Pfeiffer could be a dark horse candidate for an above-the-line nomination, potentially marking Sheridan’s first such recognition.
Pluribus (9 episodes) – Now Streaming on Apple TV+
Following the monumental success of Breaking Bad, creator Vince Gilligan faced immense pressure to deliver another groundbreaking series. With Pluribus, Gilligan has conceived an original dramatic concept that stands as one of the most unique seen in recent times. The series posits a world where an alien virus has reduced humanity to a single, compliant consciousness, leaving only a handful of individuals unaffected. Novelist Carol Sturka (Rhea Seehorn) is among the few immune and must seek out other survivors to form a resistance. Gilligan’s innovative approach includes featuring a queer hero tasked with saving humanity and designing narrative structures that allow for extensive one-woman showcases, benefiting Seehorn’s performance and the audience’s engagement. While it remains to be seen if Pluribus will achieve the landmark status of Breaking Bad, Gilligan appears to be well on his way.
Emmy Outlook: This freshman drama is considered a serious contender to challenge The Pitt for the coveted Best Drama Series award. Critics have overwhelmingly praised the series, with a 99% favorable rating on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting a strong likelihood of Emmy voter endorsement. Gilligan, who has yet to win an Emmy for his writing and directing, has a solid chance this year. Furthermore, Rhea Seehorn, a previous Emmy nominee, has swept major winter awards for her performance and is the clear favorite to win her first Emmy. Supporting actors Karolina Wydra and Carlos Manuel Vesga, as well as guest actors Samba Schutte and Jeff Hiller, are also potential nominees.
Ponies (8 episodes) – Now Streaming on Peacock
Set in 1977 Moscow, Ponies follows Bea (Emilia Clarke) and Twila (Haley Lu Richardson), anonymous secretaries at the American Embassy whose husbands, both envoys and spies, die under mysterious circumstances. Determined to uncover the truth, the two women go undercover, convincing their superiors that as "Persons Of No Interest" (PONIs), they would be the perfect, unsuspected agents. Critics have widely applauded the intelligence of the storyline, the seamless blend of spy thriller and buddy adventure, and especially the palpable chemistry between the series’s two lead stars.
Emmy Outlook: With a 96% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Ponies has garnered some of the season’s best reviews. Spy dramas centered on teams, such as The Americans and Mr. and Mrs. Smith, have recently resonated with Emmy voters. However, Ponies has yet to receive the same level of promotional push as those series. Its most viable path to Emmy recognition may involve highlighting its two popular and engaging stars. It is possible that the series may require another year to fully capture the attention of voters.
Scarpetta (8 episodes) – Now Streaming on Prime Video
Scarpetta diverges from the gritty medical drama of series like The Pitt, leaning more towards a crime-based mystery. The Prime Video series follows in the tradition of the 1970s drama Quincy, M.E. by placing a medical examiner at its center. Based on Patricia Cornwell’s book series, Nicole Kidman stars as Dr. Kay Scarpetta, the Chief Medical Examiner of the Commonwealth of Virginia, possessing an uncanny ability to solve crimes through scientific analysis. She is assisted by her investigative partner Pete Marino (Bobby Cannavale), who is married to her sister Dorothy (Jamie Lee Curtis), a children’s book author. The ensemble also includes Kay’s FBI profiler husband, Benton (Simon Baker), and her queer niece, Lucy Farinelli-Watson (Ariana DeBose), a gifted computer programmer. While reviews have been mixed, the series has been commended for its distinguished ensemble cast.
Emmy Outlook: The series boasts an impressive cast, including three Oscar winners (Kidman, Curtis, DeBose), an Emmy winner (Cannavale), and a nominee (Baker). This star power could entice the Actors Branch to consider Scarpetta. In competitive races, pedigree can often provide a crucial advantage. However, if voters decide to limit nominations to a single medical series, Scarpetta may be overshadowed by other contenders.
Task (7 episodes) – Now Streaming on HBO Max
Brad Ingelsby’s previous Emmy-winning series, Mare of Easttown, was lauded not only for its compelling murder mystery but also for its profound portrayal of a flawed detective grappling with grief, supported by her small-town community. Ingelsby returns to this thematic territory with Task, which centers on an FBI agent (Mark Ruffalo) and the burglar (Tom Pelphrey) he is pursuing. Both characters, in their own ways, are on a quest for forgiveness and redemption. Critics have been effusive in their praise, citing Ingelsby’s masterful writing and the layered lead performances of Ruffalo and Pelphrey.
Emmy Outlook: Ingelsby’s prior success with the Academy suggests that Task is well-positioned to follow suit. The series was recognized as one of the year’s ten best programs by the American Film Institute (AFI) and received a Critics’ Choice Award nomination. The CCA also nominated Pelphrey for his supporting work and Ruffalo for his lead actor performance, a nomination that was subsequently repeated at the Golden Globe Awards. Task has considerable momentum, particularly for its actors, but its ability to secure the eighth and final nomination slot for Outstanding Drama Series remains a key question.
The Testaments (10 episodes) – Now Streaming on Hulu
Less than a year after the conclusion of The Handmaid’s Tale, the oppressive regime of Gilead returns to television screens with The Testaments, a sequel to Margaret Atwood’s acclaimed novel. Set four years after the events of the original series, the story marks the return of the now-redeemed Aunt Lydia (Ann Dowd), who oversees the transition of young girls in Gilead into women ready for marriage or other desires of the elite men. The series focuses on Agnes (Chase Infiniti), whose calm demeanor conceals a rebellious spirit, and Daisy (Lucy Halliday), who, having been raised in a free society, is more openly defiant.
Emmy Outlook: The critical reception for The Testaments has been generally favorable, though many reviewers felt that, beyond the lead performances, the series offered little that felt novel. Chase Infiniti, fresh off an Oscar nomination, may benefit from residual goodwill, and Ann Dowd, who previously won an Emmy for her portrayal of Aunt Lydia, is a consistent favorite among voters. The central question remains whether these factors will be sufficient for a Drama Series nomination. Voters will need to decide if The Testaments represents a fresh beginning for a beloved franchise or a continuation of a familiar narrative.
Conclusion: A Highly Competitive and Evolving Race
The 2024 Emmy race for Outstanding Drama Series is characterized by a robust field of returning favorites and a compelling cohort of new contenders. The dynamic interplay between established narratives and innovative storytelling promises a captivating awards season. As the industry navigates the complexities of eligibility and the ever-shifting landscape of streaming television, the ultimate nominations and eventual winner will undoubtedly reflect a significant moment in television’s ongoing evolution. The competition is fierce, and the outcome remains decidedly uncertain, making this year’s drama Emmy race one of the most anticipated in recent memory.
